ladysprite (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
ladysprite) wrote2005-07-19 10:38 pm
ladysprite) wrote2005-07-19 10:38 pm
Public Opinion Poll
For a little while now my sweetie and I have been bouncing around the idea of getting a second car. It's really a necessity at this point; with me working at various random places around the state it's extremely difficult to drive him to and from work every day, and public transportation for him is an expensive hassle.
We've been kind of assuming we'd get a used car, just to save money, but I'm realizing that that's actually somewhat of a hassle. Neither of us is much of a car guru, and in spite of the help of extremely knowledgeable friends, I've had enough bad experiences that I'd never quite completely trust anything particularly old. So this put us looking for a fairly high-end, gently used car with no known vehicle-health issues.
The more I think about it, the more I realize that it would probably be more efficient, overall, to get a second new car. The car I currently drive is, in fact, a fairly high-end, gently used car with no known health issues. If we bought another used car, odds are we'd need to replace one car or the other within a few years. On the other hand, if we get a new car now, the car I currently use can become my sweetie's, and there would hopefully be no need to buy any more vehicles for at least a while. Part of me feels like I'm being overly extravagant and spendthrifty, but another part realizes that, if we can afford the payments, this may be the most reasonable way to go.
The other reason the new-car concept has so much appeal is that I'm thinking of buying a gas-electric hybrid. With all of the driving I do, and with the ludicrous gas prices, it seems a lot more efficient to have a car that gets much better mileage. However, I also know that my knowledge of cars is not merely woefully lacking, but functionally utterly absent, and I don't want to hop into something like this without a lot more information.
So - does anyone out there reading this own a hybrid car, or know someone who does, or at least have a strong opinion about them one way or the other? And if so, would you be willing to share any info or opinions with me?
We've been kind of assuming we'd get a used car, just to save money, but I'm realizing that that's actually somewhat of a hassle. Neither of us is much of a car guru, and in spite of the help of extremely knowledgeable friends, I've had enough bad experiences that I'd never quite completely trust anything particularly old. So this put us looking for a fairly high-end, gently used car with no known vehicle-health issues.
The more I think about it, the more I realize that it would probably be more efficient, overall, to get a second new car. The car I currently drive is, in fact, a fairly high-end, gently used car with no known health issues. If we bought another used car, odds are we'd need to replace one car or the other within a few years. On the other hand, if we get a new car now, the car I currently use can become my sweetie's, and there would hopefully be no need to buy any more vehicles for at least a while. Part of me feels like I'm being overly extravagant and spendthrifty, but another part realizes that, if we can afford the payments, this may be the most reasonable way to go.
The other reason the new-car concept has so much appeal is that I'm thinking of buying a gas-electric hybrid. With all of the driving I do, and with the ludicrous gas prices, it seems a lot more efficient to have a car that gets much better mileage. However, I also know that my knowledge of cars is not merely woefully lacking, but functionally utterly absent, and I don't want to hop into something like this without a lot more information.
So - does anyone out there reading this own a hybrid car, or know someone who does, or at least have a strong opinion about them one way or the other? And if so, would you be willing to share any info or opinions with me?
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A very good used car is just as reliable (for a commuter car) as a new one, and far more economical as well. If it is just one or two years old, you can even get a "used car loan" (at banks such as my credit union, DCU (http://www.dcu.org) or others), and sometimes even a warrantee.
Of course, I am not talking about what you want here, or the fun and satisfaction of owning a car, or any real intangibles. Just being cheap.
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It's not about fun and satisfaction; I get about as much fun and satisfaction from owning a car as I do a toothbrush. It's a necessity for my life as I lead it, nothing more or less.
It's about transportation, efficiency, cost, function.... car stuff, I guess, and I do appreciate your input - part of what I was wondering was whether it would be more cost efficient, and it seems from what you're saying that it's not. That's good to know; thank you.
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Alaric has had a Prius for about 2 years now. He likes it very much and, except for routine maintainance, has not had to take it in for repairs.
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A base Civic is 2/3 the price of a hybrid Civic (a $6,000 dollar difference). A base Accord is a little more than half the cost of a hybrid Accord. A Prius is near 21,000 dollars, and while the Saturn L is a very NICE car, the Prius is a lot like a Dodge Neon - a 14,000 car at base model. (I'd buy the Saturn over the Neon, any day, especially if money were not an object.) The Ford Escape difference is around 7 grand.
(Ignore for the moment that you can negotiate on price for a conventional vehicle, but sometimes have to pay a premium to purchase a hybrid vehicle... because of waiting lists and all.)
Call the price difference, on average, 6 grand. That is (at $3 a gallon), 2,000 gallons of gas. At $2 a gallon, 3,000. Pessimistically, that's 60,000 miles of travel (at the high price, and with the Neon's worst MPG). Optimistically that is more like 100,000 miles. Or somewhere in the middle. If you look at the Accord, the situation is even more extreme, and against your thesis. Payback on the price of gasoline alone is a very long term affair.
Hybrid vehicles have expensive batteries, which become less efficient over time, are an environmental hazard to dispose of, and which might need to be replaced over the long haul of the cars lifetime. (Presuming that one wants to keep the car for a long time, which was implied in the original posting.)
Will they have to be replaced at 5 years? 8 years? No one knows. But I've read some interestig speculative articles that talk about car batteries that suggest they might - or that in the alternative you have a car that becomes sharply less efficient.
(And the car becomes much less efficient when one does things like use the A/C...)
And, as a software engineer who professionally deals with complexity and the statistics and risks thereof - if you have two systems (electrical and gasoline), you will break down at the level of reliability of the worst of the two systems, and that the chance of a failure goes up the more systems and parts you have.
Lastly - if you don't keep the gasoline system in better tune that I think most people do, it will not shut off and instantly start as efficiently as promised. And a hybrid whose gas engine is "hard starting" is not as useful a car.
Two years is not that interesting a time period. Most cars fail to need more than ordinary maintenance during their warrantee periods - that is, in fact, how and why manufacturers can afford to offer warrantees.
(Consumer Reports has done many reviews of the value of a warrantee or an extended warrantee for most products, and they are simply not economic. A recent article in The New Yorker (if I recall), pointed out that Circuit City makes more money off extended warrantee sales than off of the products they actually sell....)
In the end, I am not at all certain that a hybrid represents value for money. I believe it represents a great unknown in long term costs and efficiencies, and an almost certainly greater cost in maintenance of two systems instead of one.
I wouldn't buy one at this time - it is a form of luxury and mechanical experiment that I wouldn't make. Of course, I have written a great many suppositions above, as well as value judgments. I'd be interested in seeing the suppositions picked apart, or value judgments identified.
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Ignoring the hybrid quality, it'd be a toss-up for me as to which one I'd pick as a car (SL2 vs Prius). I don't consider the SL2 to be significantly more luxurious than the Prius.
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As to battery replacement costs. I think you have a valid point, and are completely correct that long term data just doesn't exist yet, but I see the cost comming down and that's being driven by factors beyond just the cars. Also I think when they'll need to be replaced will depend on the type of batery system used, and in come cases they may even be able to swap them out for upgraded battery systems in the future.
As for keeping the car tuned up... I've had mine long enough now that I'm comming up on my second 3000 mile tune up. The first only took an hour and cost $30. This included the oil change...
Cars.com has a special Hybrid section. (http://www.cars.com/go/crp/buyingGuides/Story.jsp?section=Hybrid&story=HybridTechnology&subject=stories&referer=&year=New)
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But comparable trim levels are, to some degree, a luxury, and the fact that hybrids are bundled with luxury features works somewhat toward my argument that purchasing one is a luxury choice...
In any case, I re-posted with my source, so people could look at the figures. :-) Plus, of course, there is still the "room to negotiate the price" point I made.
The cost of a simple tune-up at the 3,000 mile point is so low, it's not even a question. But most folks, I wager, don't tune-up their cars religiously. Many don't even change the oil often enough.
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While I agree with this, I think in this context it's also like stating the sky is sometimes blue during the day. At least in this country, every car (or absence of car, for those that have arranged not to need one) is a social statement, to some extent. There's far more variety on the market than simple utility would require, and the spread of prices doesn't always correlate with utility. In that sense, much of the price of a car (new, or used) is tied to intangibles.
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But in this case the car purchase would be more expensive for features that are not economically justified. That's even more of a social statement than anything else, I'd wager.
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In the full size sedan market, a BMW 745 goes for ~$70,000, while a Chevrolet Impala goes for ~$25,000. Sure, the BMW has a few nifty features the Chevy doesn't, I'd wager, but $45,000 worth? I don't think so. In just about every market segment, you can find similar spreads (and those aren't even the most extreme). Yes, most hybrid cars have some 'social statement' cost to them, but compared to other examples, I don't think it's that much of a premium, particularly when it is offset by some economical utility (which will vary based on actual future gas costs).